December 2024
Small Business Optimism on the Rise
December 17, 2024
As the chart indicates, sales expectations among small businesses are at their highest level since before the pandemic. Additionally, the proportion of small businesses planning to expand their hiring plans has hit its peak over the last year.
Small business employment represents nearly half of all private sector jobs, which together with greater anticipated revenues for small business owners suggest that the American consumer should remain resilient. President-elect Trump has publicized his inclination toward business deregulation, which would be an additional tailwind for optimism.
Another ramification of a stronger business climate is the Federal Reserve may not have too much latitude to cut interest rates next year now that both the labor market and inflation are stable. Our outlook is for a slower pace of easing in 2025, with a 25-basis point (bp) cut sometime in the first half of the year and a 25-bp cut in the second half — a view the market is now coming around to.
Considering these positive signs for economic growth next year, we reaffirm our constructive outlook on the U.S. economy and domestic equities.
This material is provided for illustrative/educational purposes only. This material is not intended to constitute legal, tax, investment or financial advice. Effort has been made to ensure that the material presented herein is accurate at the time of publication. However, this material is not intended to be a full and exhaustive explanation of the law in any area or of all of the tax, investment or financial options available. The information discussed herein may not be applicable to or appropriate for every investor and should be used only after consultation with professionals who have reviewed your specific situation. The Bank of New York Mellon, DIFC Branch (the “Authorised Firm”) is communicating these materials on behalf of The Bank of New York Mellon. The Bank of New York Mellon is a wholly owned subsidiary of The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation. This material is intended for Professional Clients only and no other person should act upon it. The Authorised Firm is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority and is located at Dubai International Financial Centre, The Exchange Building 5 North, Level 6, Room 601, P.O. Box 506723, Dubai, UAE. The Bank of New York Mellon is supervised and regulated by the New York State Department of Financial Services and the Federal Reserve and authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority. The Bank of New York Mellon London Branch is subject to regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and limited regulation by the Prudential Regulation Authority. Details about the extent of our regulation by the Prudential Regulation Authority are available from us on request. The Bank of New York Mellon is incorporated with limited liability in the State of New York, USA. Head Office: 240 Greenwich Street, New York, NY, 10286, USA. In the U.K. a number of the services associated with BNY Wealth’s Family Office Services– International are provided through The Bank of New York Mellon, London Branch, One Canada Square, London, E14 5AL. The London Branch is registered in England and Wales with FC No. 005522 and BR000818. Investment management services are offered through BNY Mellon Investment Management EMEA Limited, BNY Mellon Centre, One Canada Square, London E14 5AL, which is registered in England No. 1118580 and is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Offshore trust and administration services are through BNY Trust Company (Cayman) Ltd. This document is issued in the U.K. by The Bank of New York Mellon. In the United States the information provided within this document is for use by professional investors. This material is a financial promotion in the UK and EMEA. This material, and the statements contained herein, are not an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any products (including financial products) or services or to participate in any particular strategy mentioned and should not be construed as such. BNY Mellon Fund Services (Ireland) Limited is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland BNY Mellon Investment Servicing (International) Limited is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. Trademarks and logos belong to their respective owners. BNY Wealth conducts business through various operating subsidiaries of The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
©2024 The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation. All rights reserved. WI-657218-2024-12-16