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Misery Indicator Can Signal Election Winner 

 

Introducing the Misery Index, a proxy for economic health measured by inflation¹ plus the unemployment rate. When the 12-month change of this sentiment barometer is measured a month before a presidential election, it can indicate whether the incumbent party wins or loses.

 

When the Misery Index increases in the 12 months leading up to an election, meaning the combined rates of inflation and unemployment are higher and suggesting Americans are less happy with the economy, the incumbent party typically loses. When the index decreases, the incumbent party usually remains in office.

 

As of July, the Misery Index is just 0.2% higher than it was a year ago making it difficult to forecast whether it will eke out a yearly increase or decrease come October. The next few months will reveal further changes in inflation and unemployment, allowing followers of the Misery Index to get an early read on the potential election outcome.

 

 

 

¹ The year-over-year percent change in the Consumer Price Index.

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WI-597882-2024-08-27

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