Investments
2024 Capital Market Assumptions
The 2024 edition of our 10-Year Capital Market Assumptions (CMAs) offers our projections for asset class returns, volatilities and correlations over the next decade. This yearly exercise helps in shaping the design of our investors’ long-term portfolios.
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Investments
2023 Year-End Fundraising Checklist
The approach of the end of the year means end-of-year tax planning, which for many includes finalizing annual charitable contributions. This presents an opportunity for nonprofits to engage donors and help them complete their gifts by December 31.
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October 2023
Resilient U.S. Jobs Growth Supporting Consumer Spending
October 10, 2023
Last week’s surprisingly strong labor report revealed the U.S. economy added twice as many jobs in September than expected. Strong job growth has continued to fuel consumers with the confidence to spend despite pressures from higher inflation.
Job gains have increased three times since July, to 336,000 in September. Meanwhile, real (after inflation) personal consumption grew 2.3% in August, on a year-over-year basis, which is near the highest of the year. This has occurred even as wages have cooled slightly over the past three months.
While lower wage growth helps slow inflation, the correlation between job gains and consumer spending illustrates why unemployment may need to increase before the Fed can pivot to rate cuts. However, the surge in oil prices could start to weigh on consumers. While prices pulled back from recent highs last week, the conflict in the Middle East has the potential to keep upward pressure on oil. We will be watching to see how higher oil prices are feeding into those stickier components of inflation including core services costs.
As long as the job market stays resilient, consumption - which accounts for 70% of GDP - should stay strong. That’s likely to keep upward pressure on bond yields and inflation.
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