April 10, 2024
March’s jobs report revealed the resilience of the U.S. labor market in the face of the most aggressive tightening cycle in decades. The economy added 303,000 jobs, outpacing estimates of 200,000. Demand for workers spanned multiple industries, including health care, government, hospitality and construction. As a result, the unemployment rate fell from 3.9% to 3.8%, remaining below 4% for the 28th consecutive month.
The healthy labor market has been a key driver of economic activity and consumer confidence. Consumers’ assessment of current job availability, or the proportion of consumers thinking jobs are plentiful minus the amount thinking jobs are hard to get, has been on the rise since November, and has reached its highest level since July.
The hotter-than-expected jobs report aligns with our improved outlook on economic growth, as well as our stance that rate cuts will be fewer and later. If the labor market remains strong, the U.S. economy will likely continue to outperform the rest of the world and interest rates will be higher for longer.
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